Kenya’s Escalating Security and Civic Rights Crisis

Kenya is staring down a security crisis that can no longer be blamed on bandits or activists alone. From the shocking murder of Catholic priest Fr. Alois Bett in Kerio Valley to the arrest of digital activist Rose Njeri, recent events expose a breakdown of trust, law, and legitimacy in the very institutions meant to protect the public. In Kerio, teachers, doctors, and missionaries have fled as armed groups tighten their grip — filling the vacuum left by a state that shows up too late, with too little. More than 70 schools have been shut down, a major hospital has closed, and even church leaders now speak of “a valley of death.” What’s worse: when the state does intervene, its methods are often coercive rather than restorative — issuing ultimatums to entire communities under threat of “all necessary force.” This is not security. It’s collective punishment masquerading as policy, and it only deepens fear and fuels defiance. The government’s inability to distinguish bandits from residents or treat citizens as partners in peace risks entrenching a cycle of violence. This is not a crisis of capacity. It’s a crisis of credibility.

A Report by Citizen TV Kenya

The response to civic dissent has been equally chilling. The arrest and weekend detention of Rose Njeri — a software developer who created a digital tool for citizens to email objections to the Finance Bill — was a stark reminder that Kenya’s democratic space is narrowing fast. Her crime? Enabling public participation. This is not just an affront to digital freedoms — it’s a direct violation of Article 33 (freedom of expression) and Article 35 (access to information) of Kenya’s Constitution. Even more damning is the pattern. Detaining citizens over weekends to avoid court oversight has become an authoritarian reflex. This violates the legal standard upheld in Coalition for Reform and Democracy (CORD) & 2 others v Republic of Kenya & another [2015] eKLR, where the court held that prolonged detentions without charge constitute unconstitutional abuse of state power. Yet the tactic continues — often against youth activists, journalists, and tech-savvy organizers. These are not enemies of the state. They are its conscience. If the state treats code like a crime and civic tech as terrorism, it signals a descent into digital authoritarianism — one that no PR campaign or presidential handshake can disguise.

What Kenya needs now is more than investigations and operations. It needs political courage — and jurisprudential discipline. The government must fully implement existing rulings and international obligations. The IPOA’s mandate must be respected, and police accountability pursued with vigor, not rhetoric. Parliament must hold the executive to account when it violates rights under the guise of national security. The courts have laid the foundation. In Independent Policing Oversight Authority v Attorney General & 4 others [2020] eKLR, the High Court affirmed IPOA’s role as the sole lawful investigator of police misconduct. The Executive must respect that boundary. Meanwhile, civil society must continue challenging digital repression and pushing for laws that protect activists, not silence them. Kenya’s youth are not the threat — they are the firewall against authoritarian drift. From Kerio to Kibera, from code to constitution, Kenya’s real security will only be built when the state values trust more than force, and justice more than optics.

References:

Kenya News Agency County Commissioner Leads Madaraka Day with Tough Message on Illegal Brews

The Star Key suspect in murder of Catholic priest Allois Bett arrested

BBC Outrage in Kenya over detention of software developer

The Star Gachagua calls for immediate release of activist Rose Njeri

The Eastleigh Voice Kenya’s security at risk as regional instability grows, warns NIS boss

BBC Pressure mounts to probe Kenya police and army after BBC exposé

Kenya News Agency State declare a nationwide crackdown on organized criminal gangs

Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Kenya’s Trade and Economy

In a move that has dramatically altered Kenya’s trade dynamics with the United States, the Trump administration imposed a blanket 10% tariff on imports from most nations, including Kenya, effective April 2025. This action effectively nullified the longstanding preferential treatment Kenya enjoyed under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a Congressional framework set to expire in September 2025. The result has been a sharp contraction in Kenya’s export competitiveness, particularly in the apparel and agricultural sectors, which together accounted for a significant share of exports to the U.S. The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) estimates the country could lose as much as USD 100 million annually in export revenue—a loss that represents over 13% of Kenya’s total exports to the U.S. The textiles and apparel industry, which employs tens of thousands in Export Processing Zones (EPZs), faces the steepest consequences, with squeezed margins threatening factory closures and mass layoffs. Compounding this is the complex global trade environment, where some of Kenya’s competitors face even steeper tariffs—suggesting a theoretical competitive edge—but domestic cost disadvantages like high energy prices and infrastructure bottlenecks could prevent Kenya from capitalizing on this.

A Report by Citizen TV Kenya

The introduction of the tariffs also triggered immediate market reactions, particularly on the Kenyan Shilling (KES), which depreciated upon the announcement, reflecting investor anxiety and a broader loss of confidence. While the KES had been strengthening in early 2025 due to improved foreign exchange reserves, tight monetary policy, and robust diaspora remittances, the tariffs introduced new downward pressures through trade disruption and a worsening current account balance. Analysts project a continued depreciation trend through 2025, with some forecasts suggesting the KES could reach as low as 155 to the dollar. Factors contributing to this outlook include high external debt servicing obligations, the CBK’s decision to pursue accommodative monetary policy—cutting rates to stimulate domestic demand—and narrowing interest rate differentials with the U.S., which could dampen investor appetite for KES-denominated assets. Although inflation is largely under control and remittances remain strong, these buffers may not fully offset the structural pressures introduced by disrupted trade flows and persistent macroeconomic imbalances. Moreover, Kenya’s exposure to external shocks remains high, and market sentiment continues to react swiftly to any signals of instability or shifts in U.S. policy.

A Report by NBC News

In response to these mounting pressures, the Kenyan government has adopted a multi-pronged strategy centered on diplomatic engagement, trade diversification, and internal economic reforms. Efforts are underway to secure a waiver from the 10% tariff through negotiations with U.S. officials, although progress remains uncertain. Simultaneously, Kenya is accelerating its participation in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which offers a long-term avenue to diversify trade partnerships within Africa. However, AfCFTA implementation faces its own hurdles, including infrastructure gaps, non-tariff barriers, and complex rules of origin that limit short-term gains. Beyond the continent, Kenya is looking to strengthen trade ties with the European Union, with whom it signed an Economic Partnership Agreement in 2023, and explore new opportunities in Asia and the Middle East. On the domestic front, the government is considering measures to support affected sectors, including targeted incentives for exporters and investments in value addition. Nonetheless, these responses may take time to yield meaningful relief. With AGOA’s expiry nearing and no replacement framework yet secured, Kenya’s vulnerability to abrupt shifts in U.S. trade policy has been laid bare, reinforcing the urgent need to build a more resilient, diversified, and self-sufficient export economy.

References:

Capital Business Shilling falls amid uncertainty over US tariff hikes

Capital Business Kenya risks losing Sh14bn in exports to U.S. after 10pc tariff

The Star Kenya to diversity trade ties, push for more intra-Africa trade – CS Kinyanjui.

Serrari U.S. Hits Kenya with 10% Export Tariff Amid Shifting Global Trade Dynamics

The Standard Trump tariffs threaten Kenya’s Sh72b exports

All Africa Africa: How the New U.S. Tariffs Were Calculated and What They Mean for AGOA Trade Deal