The Imminent Fall of Kenya’s Deputy President: A Political Collision on the Horizon

The political drama surrounding Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s looming impeachment highlights a deepening rift within Kenya Kwanza, the ruling coalition led by President William Ruto. While the crisis has escalated in 2024, the seeds of discontent were planted much earlier. Gachagua’s troubles became apparent at the start of the year when murmurs of discontent emerged from his Mt. Kenya political base. A faction of Mt. Kenya leaders questioned Gachagua’s loyalty to Ruto, accusing him of prioritizing his political survival over the coalition’s broader agenda. This sentiment of distrust continued to grow, further fueled by Gachagua’s perceived failure to effectively represent the interests of the Mt. Kenya region. By mid-2024, key political figures from his stronghold openly turned against him, signaling the beginning of his political decline.

Throughout 2024, Gachagua faced relentless political pressure, not only from Mt. Kenya leaders but also from other factions within the Kenya Kwanza coalition. His opponents labeled him as ineffective, self-serving, and unable to manage the intricate political dynamics of the coalition. The Standard reported that by mid-year, several Mt. Kenya leaders were organizing a unified front against him, accelerating his political fall. This internal dissent, coupled with his deteriorating relationship with President Ruto, created the perfect storm for his eventual ouster. As public sentiment shifted, the calls for his removal grew louder, leading to the current impeachment process in Parliament. Legal experts point to Kenya’s Constitution, specifically Article 150, which provides grounds for impeachment in cases of gross misconduct or constitutional violations. Gachagua’s critics argue that his leadership failures amount to just that—gross misconduct, making the parliamentary debate a critical moment in his political future.

Citizen Digital Report

Public participation exercises conducted nationwide in recent weeks further revealed strong support for Gachagua’s removal. Oral and written submissions gathered from the public indicated widespread dissatisfaction, particularly from regions like Mt. Kenya and parts of Rift Valley, where citizens felt Gachagua had failed to deliver on key political promises. Politically, the motion gained momentum, with notable figures such as Martha Karua openly backing the impeachment. Karua, a prominent opposition figure, has even called for both Gachagua and President Ruto to be impeached, citing governance failures and deep-rooted corruption. This growing consensus, both from the public and political elite, reflects broader dissatisfaction with Kenya Kwanza’s leadership and sets the stage for a significant political shift. As the parliamentary proceedings continue, it becomes increasingly clear that the outcome of Gachagua’s impeachment will have far-reaching consequences for Kenya’s political future.

References:

The Africa Report Kenya: DP Gachagua under siege as impeachment motion looms

The Standard Gachagua under siege as Mt Kenya leaders doubt his loyalty to Ruto

The Star Four-pronged attack: Why Gachagua is under siege

Citizen Digital A poisoned chalice? Deputy Presidency, the well-paying, powerful job no one leaves unscathed

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UNSC Declines Kenya Deferral Bid

The Pursuit by the ICC prosecutor, Luis Moreno Ocampo to prosecute the six suspects of the Kenya-Post-Election violence, following the disputed elections in 2007, has seen much unprecedented development. The decision by the Presidency of the International Criminal Court (ICC), authorizing the prosecutor to open investigations into the situation in Kenya, gave Ocampo the opportunity to present his evidence to the Pre-Trial Chamber II for scrutiny in an effort to enforce the issuance of summonses to the Ocampo Six, to appear before the court. On the contrary, the Kenyan President, Mwai Kibaki, appointed a seven-member  team, led by H.E Vice-President, Kalonzo Musyoka, to lobby the 15 United Nations Security Council (UNSC) members to accept Kenya’s bid for deferral of the International Criminal Court cases involving the Ocampo Six.

Diplomats at the UNSC reprobated the Kenyan bid saying Kenya chose a wrong option to seek the 12-month deferral at the UN, rather than presenting its plea directly to the ICC. This decision by the UNSC has nullified the shuttle diplomacy mission being implemented by Kalonzo Musyoka and the President Mwai Kibaki’s wing of government. The pedestal of the shuttle diplomacy is fixed on the idea that Kenya is now in a position of establishing a credible local-tribunal to try the PEV suspects. The proponents of this diplomatic mission argue that trials at the Hague will threaten Kenya’s national stability. However, Article 16, of the Rome Statute, establishing the ICC allows for deferral of cases for countries, in the event that the proceedings at the court threaten international peace. Thus, Kenya on Friday 18th March failed in its quest to overly convince the UNSC that such a threat exists.

Time is speedily running out for any disengaging maneuver upon prosecution of the Ocampo Six at the Hague, now that they have been issued with summonses to appear before the Judges at the ICC on 7th April, and in addition the UNSC decry on deferral of the cases. Kenya can still pursue the deferral option by setting up credible judicial systems that are capable of handling the cases as stipulated in Article 19 of the Rome Statute.

 

References:

www.nation.co.ke, Why Kenya failed to defer ICC cases at Security Council (22nd March 2011)

www.icc-cpi.int, Situations and Cases (22nd March 2011)

www.kbc.co.ke, UNSC declines Kenyan bid on ICC deferral (22nd March 2011)