Tag Archives: libya

Kenya’s decision for Syrian regime change is not informed

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Kenya’s Ambassador & Permanent Representative at Kenya Mission to United Nations, Macharia Kamau, “cautioned that the UN’s call for Mr. Assad to leave office must not be interpreted as an invitation to Western intervention in Syria, as did occur in Libya in response to a UN resolution adopted last year.”

It is ridiculous to not think that the West’s main agenda is to interfere with the internal affairs of and about Syria! Even so, how much success has the west achieved by intervening in chaotic situations in other states, with the promise of bringing about peace and prosperity? Negligible if any, contrary to the so many cases, where much more violence and destruction, became the order of the day, upon the exit of foreign forces. Look back at Somali, Afghanistan, and in that case, Libya. There’s clearly something aloof. Saudi Arabia’s  U.N. Ambassador, Abdallah Y. Al- Mouallimi, was quoted saying, ” today, the U.N. General Assembly sent a clear message to the people of Syria: the world is with you.” A skeptic person may ask: “Is he really representative of Syria’s people and the situation there?” I would rather Bashar Ja’afari, Syria’s U.N. Ambassador’s comments, which actually state more or less contrary, to Ambassador Abdallah’s. (“The resolution will send a message to extremists that “violence and deliberate sabotage” are acceptable and will lead “to more chaos and more crises.”)

In respect to international law, and in the context of sovereignty of states, it is wrong to impose conditions on a state’s people. “In article 2(7) of the UN Charter, it is stated that the charter gives no competence to the UN or to the UN Members to intervene in matters that are substantially under the neutral jurisdiction of a State.” Syria is not a fallen state, unfortunately, the vote defiles the very spirit of these words. Recall that “in the classic view, international law and democracy are simply not related. International law is to remain neutral vis-à-vis any political model.”

References:

East Africa: Kenya Votes At UN for Syrian Regime Change allAfrica.com 18th February, 2012

Stance on Syria proves China as firm supporter of U.N. Charter: expert xinhuanet.com 17th February 2012

China opposes armed intervention or forcing “regime change” in Syria xinhuanet.com 17th February 2012

Egypt recalls its ambassador to Syria xinhuanet.com 19th February 2012

Syria responds “positively” to Al protocol, proposes minor amendments xinhuanet.com 18th February 2012

UN General Assembly condemns Syria The State 16th February 2012

Raise in Oil Prices, Weak Shilling

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The volatile situation in Libya and the unrest in other Arab States have seen crude oil prices shoot upwards on the global market. These recent developments have inflicted a budgetary shock on Kenya’s oil import projections. The effect of the rising oil prices has been manifested in a weakening Kenyan shilling, compounded by increased political activity over the nomination of key state jobs.

Prime Minister Raila Odinga, in a statement made in parliament said that, “Kenya’s oil import bill could rise by $700 million or 2% of GDP.” The Central Bank of Kenya, increased its key interest rate in an effort to defend the weak shilling and curb rising inflation, saying, “temporary rises in oil and food prices linked to unrest in North Africa and drought at home, were becoming embedded and the inflation rate was set to creep up from 6.5 percent over the next two months.” In reference to a paper commissioned by the Energy Sector Management Assistant Programme (ESMAP) ,“as part of an investigation on energy security issues from the perspective of developing countries…”, the study found out that, “oil importers immediately face a larger import bill and unless the country is already running a surplus, or has extremely large foreign exchange reserves, this must be met by a reduction in total demand for all imported goods, so as to restore balance of payments equilibrium.”

This situation will without doubt exert more pressure on household final consumption expenditure, and in the long-run may lead to a slowdown on investment, thus reduced domestic production. httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_1JIPxUKEw  Maybe it is high time to embrace the benefits of East African Community common market as this will greatly strengthen the local monetary unit due to enhanced productivity and efficiency in allocation of the factors of production, as well as safeguard against the far reaching effect of budgetary shocks fueled by rise in costs of essential imports.

References:

Kenya raises rates to defend shilling,curb inflation 22/03/2011

Kenya’s shilling weaker vs dollar; politics weighs 4/02/2011

Shilling in loosing streak against major currencies 25/02/2011

The Macroeconomic Effects of Higher Oil Prices (As of March, 2005)