Kenya’s economic landscape has recently been overshadowed by an incessant wave of political drama and populist rhetoric, which has undeniably diverted attention from fundamental economic issues, particularly in the realm of cross-border trade. At the heart of these economic shifts is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which has emerged as a fast-growing export market for Kenya and a key player in East African regional trade. With the DRC joining the East African Community (EAC), Kenya expected to solidify its dominance in the region’s export landscape. However, the country’s engagement in political theatrics, combined with challenges in policy implementation, has led to a noticeable decline in its trade performance. This has opened the door for other nations, especially Tanzania, to make substantial gains in the DRC, overtaking both Kenya and Uganda as major trade partners.

In recent times, Tanzania’s strategic focus on improving trade corridors with the DRC, notably the $2.2 billion trade route investment, has paid off handsomely. The expansion of Tanzanian exports to the DRC threatens Kenya’s traditional influence, particularly in the lucrative mining sector, which is now pivoting toward renewables​. In contrast, Kenya’s trade policy has lacked the same degree of focus and innovation, partially due to the country’s internal struggles with political stability and governance. According to a 2023 briefing by the European Parliament on Kenya’s trade relations, the country has historically played a significant role in intra-African trade. Still, political gridlock has stymied its ability to capitalize on emerging opportunities​. While Kenya remains a strong regional player, its recent trade surplus of Ksh42 billion with Africa does little to mask the under-performance compared to its regional peers, with Tanzania poised to make further gains.

The DRC’s rapid growth as Kenya’s key export destination within the EAC bloc is a double-edged sword. On one hand, Kenya has benefited from increased exports to the DRC, driven by agricultural products like tea and other raw materials​. On the other, political instability, rising costs of doing business, and Kenya’s deteriorating trade policy framework have limited the country’s ability to leverage its geographic and economic position fully. Instead, countries like Tanzania, which have been more focused on infrastructure and logistics, are edging out Kenya in the competition for dominance in Central African markets. In a time of internal strife, Kenya risks losing further ground unless immediate corrective action is taken to refocus on economic fundamentals.

References:

The Citizen DRC overtakes Kenya, Uganda as Tanzania’s leading export market

The EastAfrican DRC overtakes Kenya, Uganda as Tanzania’s leading export market

The EastAfrican DRC now Kenya’s fastest-growing EAC export market

Business Daily Why DRC is fertile hunting ground for Kenyan firms

Somali Magazine Congo (DRC) Ranked the most Rapidly Expanding export Market for Kenya within EAC