As the relationship between President Ruto and Deputy President Gachagua continues to evolve, the future of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) becomes increasingly precarious. What initially appeared as minor differences in governance style has now escalated into a significant leadership struggle. Gachagua’s consolidation of power in the Mt. Kenya region, coupled with his growing public presence, signals broader ambitions that may eventually clash with Ruto’s agenda. While the president remains focused on implementing his economic reforms, Gachagua is methodically building an independent power base that could reshape the internal dynamics of UDA.
The growing rift between the two leaders reflects the broader challenge of leadership succession within political parties in Kenya. Historically, leadership transitions have rarely been smooth, often marred by tribalism, personal rivalries, and a lack of formal processes to resolve disputes. As Gachagua solidifies his influence, the risk of a fragmented UDA increases. Political observers have noted that this type of leadership rivalry is not unique to Kenya, as other African political parties have struggled with similar issues. Without mechanisms to mediate these conflicts, the party risks internal implosion, particularly as Gachagua’s ambitions continue to rise.
Additionally, other key figures in UDA, such as Kithure Kindiki, who was once considered for the running mate position, may find themselves as kingmakers in this evolving power struggle. Kindiki, who has largely kept a low profile since being passed over in 2022, remains a respected figure within the party and could play a crucial role in shaping UDA’s future direction. His supporters, still nursing grievances from the 2022 election cycle, could realign with factions disillusioned by the Ruto-Gachagua fallout. Looking ahead, the absence of a clear succession mechanism in UDA, coupled with these internal divisions, sets the stage for a potentially splintered ruling coalition ahead of the 2027 elections. The next few years will be critical for UDA as it navigates this delicate balance of power.
References:
The Standard Why Gachagua’s survival depends on ending alliance with Ruto
The Star Gachagua: Our 17-hour talk and how Ruto settled on me as DP
Shahidi DP Ruto Nominates Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua As His Running Mate
Mpasho Ruto: Reason I chose Gachagua as my deputy
Nairobi Wire DP Ruto Explains Why He Chose Gachagua Over Kindiki as Running Mate
The Star DP Ruto picks Rigathi Gachagua as his running mate
The Star Kindiki, Gachagua leave Ruto residence as deputy naming hits snag
Pulse Live Details of the heated 17-hour standoff on Ruto’s running mate
Nation DP Ruto explains why he settled on Rigathi Gachagua as his running mate





