Kenya’s Affordable Housing Programme (AHP) has been framed by the government as a historic solution to the nation’s urban housing deficit — a bold, transformative plan to put 250,000 new housing units into the hands of low- and middle-income earners each year. It’s the crown jewel of the Kenya Kwanza administration’s economic agenda, wrapped in promises of job creation, urban renewal, and dignity for the working class. But behind the polished press briefings and televised groundbreakings, the cracks are showing. Critics argue the housing levy — a mandatory deduction from all salaried workers — amounts to taxation without representation, especially when access to the houses is uncertain and the projected costs remain largely unaffordable for the very people funding them. Worse still, the rollout has sparked deep anxiety over forced evictions, unclear beneficiary selection processes, and the growing fear that without proper planning, these “affordable” units may become vertical slums stacked over broken infrastructure. For many Kenyans, the project feels less like a social contract and more like a speculative bet — one where the house always wins, and it’s not the public holding the keys.

The legal and structural questions around the housing project are mounting. In 2023, the High Court ruled parts of the Affordable Housing Act unconstitutional — particularly the centralized levy collection through the Kenya Revenue Authority, which bypassed public participation and legislative oversight. While the government quickly responded with legislative tweaks, the shadow of that ruling lingers. Public trust in housing delivery remains fragile, especially given Kenya’s history with failed or stalled housing programs and ghost estates like the infamous Nyayo House projects. Though the state touts the initiative as “inclusive,” it is heavily reliant on public-private partnerships where the private sector bears little risk, while taxpayers shoulder both the capital and the consequences. Key policy watchdogs argue that the financing model lacks transparency, and that the absence of social safeguards could lead to gentrification and displacement, particularly in areas like Mukuru, Kibera, and Mathare where informal settlements sit on prime land now targeted for redevelopment. The big risk? That homes built in the name of the poor end up benefiting civil servants, politicians, and private investors — not the mama mboga or jua kali artisan.

If Kenya’s affordable housing dream is to succeed, it must move beyond brick-and-mortar targets and confront the human realities of affordability, transparency, and equity. The price tags on many units still outpace the average urban worker’s income. The so-called “affordable” category often starts at KSh 1.5M — a figure out of reach for most informal sector workers who make up over 80% of Kenya’s labor force. Meanwhile, the digitized application and allocation model, while meant to enhance fairness, risks excluding those without access to mobile money, smartphones, or stable identification — particularly the urban poor it claims to prioritize. Additionally, new housing developments are outpacing investments in transport, sewerage, schools, and hospitals, raising fears that these estates will quickly deteriorate into overpopulated, under-serviced high-rises. The government must urgently clarify allocation policies, invest in supporting infrastructure, and put people — not politics — at the center of the housing agenda. Because if “affordable housing” becomes just another ambitious slogan without delivery, it won’t just fail to fix the housing crisis — it will deepen Kenya’s already fractured urban future.

References:

KBC Completed number of affordable housing units down by half

The Eastleigh Voice Govt raises affordable housing research budget to Sh2.8bn amid credibility concerns

Capital News Ruto says handing over Housing units the most consequential day of his political career.

NTV Who got Ruto Mukuru houses? Not us, residents now claim

Citizen Digital Vertical slums: How new crop of apartments in Kilimani, Kileleshwa is affecting Nairobi’s infrastructure