Kenya has long positioned itself as a key mediator in East Africa, with a foreign policy prioritizing peaceful coexistence and regional stability, evidenced by its involvement in organizations like IGAD and the EAC . While historically successful in mediating conflicts, such as the Sudanese Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2005, recent diplomatic forays under President Ruto have encountered significant headwinds . Initiatives in the Democratic Republic of Congo, including bringing the DRC into the EAC and leading the EAC Regional Force, have been marred by accusations of bias and a lack of trust from Kinshasa, particularly concerning the handling of rebel groups . Similarly, Kenya’s hosting of Sudanese Rapid Support Forces meetings has drawn strong condemnation from the Sudanese government, which views it as a hostile act, further damaging Kenya’s image as a neutral broker in regional disputes . These challenges underscore a potential shift in regional perceptions of Kenya’s diplomatic impartiality, which could have implications for its ongoing efforts in other conflict zones.

Against this backdrop, Kenya launched the Tumaini Initiative in May 2024, a high-level mediation process aimed at addressing the protracted crisis in South Sudan by engaging hold-out groups that did not sign the 2018 peace agreement . Led by veteran mediator General Lazarus Sumbeiywo, the initiative seeks to reboot the existing peace deal, extend its implementation timeline, and potentially pave the way for delayed elections . While initial talks saw agreement on a negotiation agenda focusing on the root causes of the conflict, the identity of parties, the relationship with the existing peace agreement, and power-sharing arrangements, the process has faced significant hurdles . Key opposition groups, such as the South Sudan Opposition Movement Alliance (SSOMA), have rejected the Kenyan mediation, arguing that it fails to address the fundamental issues fueling the conflict . This skepticism, coupled with the deep-seated political instability, the ongoing humanitarian crisis exacerbated by the war in Sudan, and the slow progress in implementing the 2018 agreement, casts a shadow over the potential for the Tumaini Initiative to achieve a comprehensive and lasting peace.

The effectiveness of Kenya’s diplomatic mission in South Sudan hinges on several critical factors, including its ability to rebuild trust and demonstrate neutrality, foster a truly inclusive dialogue that addresses the grievances of all stakeholders, and secure sustained commitment from South Sudanese leaders . International reaction to the Tumaini Initiative has been cautiously supportive, with organizations like the UN emphasizing the importance of regional support from Kenya while also expressing growing concern over the deteriorating situation in South Sudan . Expert analysis suggests that while the initiative offers a glimmer of hope by aiming to address the root causes of the conflict, the history of failed peace talks and the persistent lack of political will among South Sudanese leaders remain significant obstacles . Ultimately, for Kenya’s efforts to yield lasting results, a concerted and collaborative approach involving regional and international partners, coupled with a genuine commitment from all South Sudanese parties to prioritize peace and stability over political gains, will be essential to navigate the complex landscape and break the cycle of conflict.

References:

Aljazeera Peacemaker or peacebreaker? Why Kenya’s good neighbour reputation is marred

Kenyan Foreign Policy Ruto’s Premature Diplomacy Faces Regional Pushback in DRC Mediation Efforts

The East African Only Ruto has power on foreign policy direction

Aljazeera South Sudan on brink of renewed civil war, UN warns

Aljazeera UN warns of conflict in South Sudan amid reports of VP Riek Machar’s arrest

Xinhua Kenya vows to prioritize regional integration, security with global partners